THE SECOND STORY | April 2nd, 2015

Alameda…coming home from San Francisco

I took this shot a couple of weeks ago while a foursome of us were coming back from the City By The Bay. Amazing day, company, and clouds. I think I see things very differently….

I received an email today from some first-time buyers…wondering if the market is slower during the fall and winter. My brief explanation was, ‘no.’

In a market like this (high demand and low inventory) buyers will always be out there looking at properties. There are so few of them! Plus during those ‘off months’ there is almost always less inventory to choose from. So there still is a demand.

I got to thinking about how many markets I have been through over the years. I’ve always have worked full time at Alameda real estate. I’ve continued to get educated throughout my career and have traveled all over the country to get that education. I’ve attempted to be on top of items in town that impact real estate in Alameda (through the a city committee that has been in place for over 10 years, and through the Alameda Association of Realtors).

I changed a few words in my response, but this was my basic answer:

Those of us who work in Alameda find little or no difference with the seasons. There may be less inventory in the winter, which makes it even more challenging for the willing buyers.

When the inventory increases (and it will at some point due to unforeseen financial issues and/or unforeseen natural disaster issues), there will be relief on the inventory demand.

Once interest rates head upward, some of the buyers will be knocked out of the market. If the rates go up high enough, prices will be more flexible (as in coming down).

You guys are young….but I’ve seen the cycle shift every 4-7 years or so, since I’ve been in the business.

1988 When rates were coming down off of 18% (and yes we were able to sell property even though bank loans weren’t used), and the rates continued to get lower and lower under 10%…more buyers came into the market and prices zoomed up. Average price of detached 2/1 houses in Alameda were 145K.

1989 SF earthquake shook our small world up.  Lots of construction going on and rebuilding. But it was a disaster.

1991 Next the Oakland hills firestorm came along. Alot of displace folks came into Alameda while their houses were rebuilt. It was also a disaster.

1997 Then the Federal government shutdown numerous military bases (including Alameda Naval Air Station)…and there was a lack of jobs. And that is when I listed my first short sale, a condo at The Willows.

2005 Next the dot-com boost came…and then that busted up. No demand.

2007 The most recent US financial disaster came along. Much of the US has finally recovered from that. And rates are/were artificially low.

2015 Now there is lots of cash out there…and high demand for all inventory, including brand new homes (Alameda Landing).)

Is there a perfect time? I’ve yet to see anybody with that type of foresight. We are a reactionary group by nature…

I’m glad I wrote this out. I believe it will become a blog post!

Best, marilyn (and it became tonight’s post!)

Alameda Real Estate this Week
Broker Tour Tues…13 this week  Saw the 94502 and the east end properties of 94501 by car, then got on my bike to finish out the tour.

New  13
PCH price change  2
Pending  15
Sold  9
Active listings this week – 36
Pending listings this week- 64

Alameda Real Estate Awards this week..remember this is only my perspective!
Winner of the week
Get me to rehab
Get me a makeover (3 way tie)

That’s a wrap! Have a great weekend!

Best, marilyn

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I arrived in Alameda in 1973, as a new bride...with husband Carl Schumacher, both of us from Newport Beach. He was embarking on his career as a Naval Architect (i.e. yacht designer) under Gary Mull. Please see the 'ABOUT ME' page in this website! to see how it has all turned out! I'm so blessed!